How not to eliminate nuclear weapons
Sunday, January 24, 2010 at 09:00AM George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, William Perry and Sam Nunn famously said that the world should move toward eliminating nuclear weapons. But their rationale for doing so (a rationale that has since been adopted by lots of people - in part because of the authority of these four) is, unfortunately, unlikely to lead to the elimination of nuclear weapons.
The four former Cold Warriors give two unelaborated reasons for moving toward elimination: 1) ongoing proliferation makes it increasingly likely that nuclear weapons will fall into the wrong hands, and 2) nuclear deterrence is "increasingly hazardous and decreasingly effective." Neither of these arguments makes progress toward eventual elimination likely.
The "wrong hands" argument is popular because of all the attention and passion that Americans have poured into the notion of terrorist attacks. It also neatly explains why these four might have been in favor of nuclear weapons then (when they advocated for them) but are against them now. During the Cold War (it could be argued) nuclear weapons were tightly controlled and mostly only in the hands of the US, the Soviet Union or their allies. Now, however, more and more countries are getting or are interested in getting nuclear weapons. With so many arsenals, it's only a matter of time before terrorists or irresponsible regimes get their hands on them.
The problem with the "wrong hands" argument is that it will cause Americans to clutch more tightly to their nuclear weapons, not eventually let them go. Extensive research has been done on public attitudes about nuclear weapons. Mention "bad guys" and people react emotionally: they suddenly find themselves wanting the most effective protection available. And what could be more effective than the biggest bomb there is?
Frighten people, make them think of the strange, unpredictable, fanatical "other" and you harden the desire to keep nuclear weapons. The way to get rid of nuclear weapons is to make them seem like a common danger - one that threatens all of us. Recast nuclear weapons as being like hurricanes - enormously destructive to all - and you are likely to make progress. Remind people that they're afraid of strange people who have different ways and you are likely to impede progress.
On the second point (the notion that nuclear deterrence is getting less effective somehow) what's amazing is that this notion is so widespread while at the same time has so little solid intellectual foundation. I presume that what the Four have in mind here is that as more and more countries get nuclear weapons, nuclear deterrence works less well. -That while two-sided nuclear deterrence might work, many-sided nuclear deterrence works less well or not at all. While this idea has a certain plausibility, there hasn't been, as far as I know, any formal development of the theory: no scholarly debate, no books expounding the point in a scholarly way, no equivalent to Strategy in the Missile Age or Arms and Influence.
The suggestion that nuclear deterrence is a bit less effective doesn't lead toward the elimination of nuclear weapons. Even if full-fledged deterrence is less useful, one could argue, wouldn't it be prudent to keep a few nuclear weapons, say, 50, just in case? The "nuclear deterrence seems to be less effective" argument seems like a good reason to abandon old-style nuclear deterrence using strategic arsenals with thousands of weapons. But it doesn't force you irresistibly toward complete elimination.
Eliminating nuclear weapons will require strong, clear arguments that have been thoroughly discussed. And it will have to be based on a notion that points to the common danger that nuclear weapons pose to all people, rather than dividing the world into the "responsible" and the dangerous others.
Shultz, Kissinger, Perry, and Nunn are to be commended for changing and restarting the debate. But more needs to be done.
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Meanwhile what do you think of their latest in the WSJ? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704152804574628344282735008.html